Cumberland Times-News

Bob Doyle - Astronomy

January 28, 2010

Doubt is the bane of science

There are many interesting issues in science as: What is the nature of consciousness?, What is the nature of dark energy? and Are there other life bearing worlds across our galaxy?

The resolution of these issues won’t probably affect our lives or our communities. But there are some issues that demand attention, particularly since they affect our lives and that of many around the world.

“Are human activities altering our climate?” is one where science can give us a credible answer and suggest alternatives to our current way of generating energy, using water and growing and distributing food.

There are many Americans who would rather not think about this issue. They enjoy the freedom to drive their vehicles as they like, to enjoy highly lighted streets at night (who cares about the stars?), to live in big, oversized houses, to be able to go on long trips whenever, to be able to eat as much as they please, etc.

So it’s quite disagreeable for these “short-termers” to hear that our high use of energy and resources has some unfortunate consequences for the environment. So we can expect a great deal of skepticism and resentment about any scientific studies that question our way of living.

They ask “Why should this be so, after all humans have been here for many thousands of years?”

The human population has mushroomed in the past few centuries, increasing from a billion in the early 1800s to nearly 7 billion now.

In each stage of civilization, human per capita energy use has jumped five-fold. We started as hunter gatherers with the only energy/person being that our food intake.

Then a five-fold jump to early agriculture where we harnessed livestock. Then with advanced agriculture, including the transportation of foodstuffs to areas far from the farms, another five fold increase in energy per person.

Then the industrial revolution with the large scale use of coal bumped us another five-fold in energy consumption.

Finally, we are in the petroleum age, (another five fold energy jump) where most of us driving fuel powered motor vehicles that when being driven on the road have power of about 50,000 watts (modest cars) to 100,000 watts (SUV’s and trucks).

One way to express our energy use is to compare the average energy consumption per American to that of a noble in an ancient culture where humans (slaves), not appliances and machines were used for tasks.

Each of us has the equivalent of 125 energy slaves. These figures are not those in developing countries. But around the world, most people want to live like Americans, have their own motorized vehicles, have well heated and cooled dwellings, use electrical appliances, have electronic media, etc.

So it will not be too long before the bulk of people in the large developing countries are consuming energy at a much higher rate as they become more industrialized.

Each year, human activities put over 30 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. Since 1960, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has gone from 315 parts per million to 392 parts per million(ppm), a 24 percent increase in 50 years.

But why worry about such a trace gas (0.04 percent) in our atmosphere? Carbon dioxide is a gas that absorbs and reemits heat waves. As the carbon dioxide increases, more of the heat waves generated by the Earth’s surface are absorbed by CO2, of which some are reemitted downward, increasing our surface temperature.

A warming of the Earth’s surface will also increase evaporation in the oceans, lakes, increasing the water vapor (H2O) in the air, which also absorbs and reemits heat waves.

Another gas that has the same effect as CO2 and H2O is methane (CH4), whose present concentration is 1.7 ppm. But atmospheric methane is growing at a faster rate than CO2; CH4 is 25 times as effective in absorbing and reemitting heat waves as CO2.

Methane concentration in the atmosphere has nearly tripled in historical times due to cattle and rice paddies. There are large amounts of methane hydrates in the Arctic permafrost that are starting to release methane as the Arctic tundra melts due to higher temperatures (warming there is much larger than in continental U.S.).

So all of the above facts are somewhat worrisome. Yet the television media makes climate change into a political issue where each side is entitled to equal amount of time.

By having heated exchanges, the cable and network channels can attract more viewers and raise advertising revenues. The key deniers to human driven climate change are a small minority of scientists and an even smaller minority of climate scientists.

The best known climate change denier (due to humans) is Ian Plimer, an Australian geologist who focuses on volcanic eruptions as a major climate changer.

It is true that typical volcanic outbursts can cause changes in the average global temperature but on the order of years, not decades or centuries. Plimer regards the increase in CO2 in our atmosphere as a boon to plants.

As for humans in the Maldives, Bangladesh and southern China flooded out of their communities by rising ocean levels, Plimer cavalierly remarks that humans are adaptable and will find a way to survive.

Plimer ignores the severe droughts and bush fires ravaging his native Australia. Global climate models predict longer droughts for Australia as the average global temperature rises due to the interaction between the oceans and atmosphere there.

Plimer cites the raise in the methane air pressure on Pluto (has almost no atmosphere) over 14 years; it is likely this is due to Pluto being near perihelion (closest approach to sun), rather than an increase in solar power.

This Tuesday, the moon will appear near the planet Saturn in the late evening sky. This Thursday, the yellowish planet Mars is about 3 degrees to the north of the Beehive star cluster is Cancer. As you face south, binoculars will show the Beehive as a scattering of stars below Mars.

Today are our last showings of “Our Glorious Atmosphere” with free public programs at 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. in Tawes 302. Next Sunday’s program (February 7) is “Quick Intro to the Universe” with the same schedule of programs.

Following these planetarium shows (last less than an hour), those interested can tour our Science Discovery Center about 5 p.m. and 8 p.m.

Bob Doyle invites any readers comments and questions. E-mail him at rdoyle@frostburg.edu . He is available as a speaker on his column topics.

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Bob Doyle - Astronomy
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