Precious, yet taken for granted

With all the furor about global warming and peak oil, a more deadly crisis has received little notice in the media. Water has long had the lowest price of any commodity. But in less than 10 years from now, expect serious turmoil between the food producers and city dwellers in the dry U.S. Southwest.

Then there is the huge use of water for power plants, particularly for nuclear power plants. In addition, making enough ethanol for a motor vehicle to travel 100 miles may take as much as 1,000 gallons of fresh water.

As energy prices climb, it becomes more expensive to pump water from a deep well or transport water through pipelines that run for hundreds of miles across land. Desalinization plants take 10 as much energy per water quantity than energy involved in using groundwater.

Let’s consider problem areas in the United States. Georgia’s reservoirs have been so low that they have had to restrict any flow into the Apalachicola River, threatening some endangered species. The water level has dropped so low that nuclear power reactors in Georgia and Alabama may not be able to maintain their cooling and thus need to be taken off the grid.

Out west, the lack of snowmelt into the Colorado River may cause restrictions on water flow to seven states and the Hoover Dam. U.S. irrigation is drawing down our vast Ogallala Aquifer, whose water level has dropped 30 meters (nearly 100 feet) over a few decades.

This is a fossil aquifer whose water accumulated over thousands of years from the melting of glacier ice; once it runs dry, it can’t be replenished by rainfall (unlike aquifers closer to the surface).

Overseas, the growing scarcity of water is more serious. Aquifers are being drawn down at an unsustainable rate (will lead to exhaustion of water) in countries that have over half of the world’s population. China and India are especially at risk.

While U.S. farmers use irrigation for one-fifth of our crops, more than half of China and India’s crops depend on irrigation. In the North China plain, water levels are dropping three meters (about ten feet) a year. Because of a lack of water, China’s wheat harvest has dropped 15 percent from its 1997 high. Water is essential as each ton of wheat requires 1,000 tons of water.

Around Beijing, China’s capitol, wells must go down 1,000 meters (over 3,200 feet) to get fresh water, adding considerably to its cost. Conditions are even worse in India, where the population is growing faster. India’s farmers have installed 21 million wells, costing a total of $12 billion.

The amount of electricity needed to pump water from these deep wells is already leading to blackouts. Naturally, most of India electricity is by coal-burning power plants, adding further to the carbon dioxide gases in the atmosphere. In areas where the wells have run dry, water for agriculture must be brought in by trucks, relying on petroleum, whose supplies will eventually diminish.

The worst cases of water scarcity include Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Israel and Mexico. Near Pakistan’s capitol, water tables are dropping two meters a year. The waters of the Nile river scarcely make it to the Mediterranean due to heavy use of the Nile for irrigation.

Saudi Arabia’s aquifer will be dry in a decade or two, then all that oil will help little. Yemen is probably facing an exhaustion of its own water supply sooner than any other nation. Israel must share their water with Palestinians, who are now getting only about 33 percent as much water per person as Israelis.

My feeling is that water scarcity will play a huge role in future international conflicts, perhaps even more than oil has. I am afraid that when a country’s waters run out, there will be a huge number of water “immigrants” crossing their borders and squatting where they can find water. Instead of guns and explosives, these unfortunate people will be unarmed and just trying to stay alive.

Morning moon and meeting

After the full moon last Wednesday, the moon began slipping away into the morning sky, The two bright planets, Venus and Jupiter are dominating the early evening sky. Look low in the southwest (to the left of sunset) for two very bright points of light.

Venus is the brighter and lower while Jupiter is higher and seen longer in the evening. Both planets shine with a steady light, not twinkling as the stars. Each night, Venus appears a little closer to Jupiter and the two planets will be only 2 degrees apart at the end of November.

Continuing at the Frostburg State Planetarium is “StarDeath and Elements” with free public programs at 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. today and next Sunday. The planetarium is in Tawes 302, an older building near the Lane Center, the Performing Arts Center and the new Compton Science Center. Call (301) 687-7799 to request a planetarium bookmark by stating your name and mailing address.

The Cumberland Astronomy Club will meet this Friday at 7:30 p.m. at the LaVale Public Library. Telescopes are often set up after the meeting for everyone to view. All interested are invited to attend.

Bob Doyle invites readers’ comments and questions by emailing him at rdoyle@frostburg.edu .