Changes ahead

An increasingly important quality to consider is sustainability. Most simply, sustainable means “to be able to maintained over time.” We usually consider sustainability in regard to humans and the demands we make on our environment in regard to energy, food, water and waste.

Sustainability can be applied to our global civilization, just to the United States or only to the region we live in (the Tri-State area). In a similar way, we can consider sustainability for a time interval of a decade, a century or many centuries.

Richard Heinberg, a noted author on our current civilization, has developed five rules or axioms for sustainability needed to maintain a society for many centuries. History tells us of a number of prominent societies that have risen and fallen (for example, the Maya, the Anasazi of the American Southwest, the Roman Empire, Greenland settled by Norse.

A small number of societies have made adaptations and endured (such as Iceland, Dominican Republic).

Authors such as Jared Diamond and Joseph Tainter have analyzed why some societies have collapsed or disappeared and the exceptional societies that lasted. So there is much analysis on which Heinberg can base his rules. These rules are able to be tested scientifically, are sufficient with no loopholes and expressed in language an informed layperson can grasp.

Rule (Axiom) 1. Any society that continues to use critical resources in a unsustainable way will collapse. Of course, if a society finds replacement resources, it can endure. But in a finite world, the number of replacement resources is limited.

Rule (Axiom) 2. Population growth and/or growth in the rates of consumption of resources can’t continue indefinitely.

Rule (Axiom) 3. To be sustainable, the use of renewable resources must be at a rate that is less than the rate of natural replenishment. Consider the forests and fish populations in the ocean.

Rule (Axiom) 4. To be sustainable, the use of non-renewable resources (ex. fossil fuels) must be at a rate that is declining and the rate of decline must be larger than the rate of depletion.

Rule (Axiom) 5. Sustainability requires that substances put into the environment by humans be minimized and rendered harmless to the biosphere (all the life forms that live in the environment).

Suppose that energy prices skyrocket (not just gasoline, but natural gas and all other petroleum products, including plastics), long range civilian transportation is discontinued, farms lose their fertilizer (made using natural gas) and only local water is available. Then what restrictions might be put into effect for our Tri-state area in line with the above axioms for sustainability?

As to Rule 1, our area now relies heavily on electrical transmission lines and much natural gas and petroleum that’s extracted from far outside this area. To move in the direction of Rule 1 would imply that we seek to generate more of our own electricity from wind turbines and solar panels.

Since natural gas is mainly used to heat homes, there could be changes in our houses, businesses and schools, not only with insulation but to tap into passive solar energy to provide heat during the winter. We could use our personal vehicles more sparingly to reduce our needs for petroleum. Local public transportation could be expanded.

Regarding Rule 2, Families could be encouraged to space out their children with at least five years between births. The school population would drop: More resources could be devoted to each child.

Rule 3 would require limits on wood cutting, hunting and fishing (some of which already exist).

Rule 4 would require gasoline/ethanol/diesel fuel use be monitored for each driver so that only what one needs is available. Only certain amounts of natural gas or heating oil could be purchased by each home or business owner. (On extremely cold nights, community sleeping in warm school gyms.)

Rule 5 would require that most houses compost as much of their waste as possible. Garbage collection charges would be based on poundage. Nearly all glass, plastics and newspapers would be recycled. There would be systematic checking of the water and air to be sure no harmful products are released through human activities.

These and some other changes would be needed to keep this area’s population living sustainably.

It would likely be far worse in suburban areas, flooded by refugees from the abandoned cities.

Some local residents would balk at any change to their lifestyle. But does one’s personal choices and reluctance to change overrule what will be left to future generations?

Before we get to the point where such restrictions are imposed, it would be wise to minimize what energy we use, eat just what we need to maintain our health, conserve water and make use of what materials we have, rather than buy new stuff and toss old stuff that’s still usable (or at least pass it on to some one who could use it). Sustainable living is the best way to ensure our country’s future.

Vacation sights

If you go far South, the southern star groups such as the Scorpion (like a J) and Sagittarius (like an old fashioned tea kettle) will be much higher in the South. Conversely, the northern star groups would fall lower in the sky, dropping Cassiopeia (like a W) below the horizon.

If you go far north, the southern star groups (Scorpius and Sagittarius) would be below the horizon. The northern star groups will be higher, including the bright golden star Capella being always above the horizon.

Call (301) 687-7799 to request a free planetarium/Science Discovery Center bookmark (shows and tours resume on Sunday, Sept. 7).

I am available for brief talks and discussions for clubs or groups (call above phone number).

Bob Doyle invites comments and questions from readers; his email is rdoyle@frostburg.edu .